Firstly with regards to the question of TKI vs transplant as frontline treatment of paediatric CML, the current consensus is that TKIs are the treatment of choice and that the only indications for BMT are failure of TKI therapy, progression while on TKI, or blast phase. The main argument in favour of TKIs is that, even though transplant is potentially curative, it is associated with a small but definite risk of transplant-related mortality (overall survival at 5 years was 71% in a recent retrospective CIBMTR study by Chaudhury et al, 2014). It can also be argued that chronic GvHD may be as bad or worse than TKI toxicity. However, some argue that the role of transplant should be re-evaluated given that the risks of early complications of transplant are much lower today. Both sides of the argument are addressed in a recent paper co-authored by the main members of the I-BFM CML subgroup (Hijiya et al, Blood 2016). Susanne Matthes-Martin from Vienna is a fairly vocal advocate for transplanting and she argues for reduced intensity conditioning (flu / mel / thiotepa). At the I-BFM meeting in 2014, she reported that 18 chronic phase patients had received this regimen with TRM of 0%, grade III-IV GvHD in 2 of 18 patients, and extensive chronic GvHD in 1 of 18 patients (and this ultimately resolved). While these results looked promising, it's worth noting that 4/17 patients had mixed chimerism, and it's well established in adult patients that CML can recur many years after transplant. Also, this study has been open for a long time and accrual has been really slow, which suggests to me that most paediatric haematologists view TKIs as standard frontline treatment. In support of this view, only 6 of the 18 patients that were reported by Matthes-Martin in 2014 went to transplant because of physician/patient choice, with the others all being referred for insufficeint response, secondary loss of response, imatinib intolerance, etc. In summary, the question of TKI vs transplant is difficult because a head-to-head study would be unfeasible, and comparing current outcomes with TKIs to pre-2000 transplant outcomes is not really valid because of improvements in transplant care since that time. The bottom line is that TKIs are currently the treatment of choice.
With regards to which TKI to choose, imatinib has the longest safety and efficacy record in children. Its toxicity in children is similar to adults apart from the well-described slowing of longitudinal growth (which I have to admit has not been observed in my patients). The phase I data (Zwan 2013, Aplenc 2011) suggested that dasatinib is well tolerated, but the phase 2 study (BMS CA180-226) is not yet reported. I'm fairly certain that this study is no longer accruing - it closed in Adelaide last year. It was expected that the primary outcome measures would be ready for reporting in 2016, so perhaps we will hear something later this year. I have switched one of my paediatric patients from imatinib to dasatinib for suboptimal response, and he has tolerated the drug better than imatinib. On the other hand, Peter Shaw has had a patient who had really troublesome treatment-resistant pleural effusions on dasatinib. My main concern about dasatinib is the unknown risk of pulmonary artery hypertension over many decades of use. There is a small phase I and II nilotinib study, but they remain unpublished years after they started, and the paediatric CML community were fairly spooked by the data from adults suggesting an increased risk of vascular events from nilotinib. On a practical level, nilotinib is difficult to schedule given the need for avoiding food for a couple of hours around dosing and also the twice daily dosing is more inconvenient than the once daily dosing of imatinib and dasatinib. These features risk worse adherence in an AYA patient. Nobuku Hijiya from Chicago has told me that she thinks bosutinib might not be associated with as much growth retardation as the others, but I'm not sure what has informed that viewpoint. Personally, I would start with imatinib 400 mg daily, but may consider switching if he has an inadequate early molecular response or appears to be failing to meet the European LeukaemiaNet (adult) response guidelines.
Finally, Tim raised the question of the spleen size and Sokal score in children. Neither the Sokal score, Eutos score, Euro score nor Hasford score have been validated in children. Frederic Millot from France has done an (as yet unpublished) exploratory analysis on patients from the I-BFM CML Registry using CCR at 1 year as the endpoint. On univariate analysis, the Sokal score and Euro score were not predictive of outcome but spleen size, Eutos score, hematocrit, marrow monocytes, lymphocytes and myelemia (whatever that is) were. However on multivariate analysis none of these held up and he was not able to identify any independent prognostic factors. A current goal of the group is to develop and validate a paediatric predictive score. For now, I think molecular response at various timepoints is the only validated prognostic marker in kids.
So in summary, I would feel confident recommending that your patient should start a TKI - probably imatinib as it has the longest track record of efficacy and safety, and is an economically sound choice. Equally, starting with dasatinib, based on the speedier time to MMR in adults, would be a very reasonable choice. I would emphasise the importance of adherence from day 1, and if there are any adverse social factors or family difficulties I would work very hard to fix these as supportive family relationships appear to predict for better adherence in other chronic illnesses in AYAs. I would tissue type him just in case he turns out to be a bad player, but would not go to the length of initiating an unrelated donor search yet. I would do 3-monthly marrows until he achieves a CCR, and would do 3-monthly BCR-ABL PCRs indefinitely. If he has a suboptimal early molecular response or fails other timepoints I would consider switching him (although we are somewhat constrained by the PBS as to when this can be done). I would also track his growth carefully. (I have tended to monitor growth hormone, beta crosslaps, Vit D, osteocalcin, P1NP, calcium and PTH out of interest, but that's probably unnecessary and on reflection I doubt that any of these would be management altering.)